This may be of more interest to friends beyond the UK, but I hope all will
find something to provoke thought, even if you disagree.
The day after the general election we drove to Suffolk to visit my
family. As I waited to pay for car fuel, a European lorry driver came into the shop
clutching a 50 Euro note. He did not join the queue waiting to pay. A British
driver called out “Oi mate there’s a queue here.” The other driver tried to
explain that he just wanted to ask a question (he was unsure whether he could
pay with Euros). The British driver responded “For f***k’s sake. Bloody
ignorance. Good job we voted to get out yesterday.” This was the first
reference I have heard to the election beyond the media. I cannot claim that
this incident was typical, but it does illustrate one strand of the emotions
aroused by Brexit.
Brexit
The election results mean that the UK will certainly leave the EU from a
formal perspective on 31 January. Certain arrangements will continue for a
transition period, which in theory ends on 31 December 2020. After that, all
depends on negotiations. In the meantime, there remain many uncertainties,
particularly for UK citizens who live in the EU (like our youngest son) whose
rights are immediately reduced and far from clear, and for EU citizens in the
UK.
By casting the Brexit decision as a Yes/No or Remain/Leave choice, the
Conservative Party created two political camps with opposing views. Now, there
are, of course differing views on any political issue. For example, one can
have different views about the rate at which we can moderate CO2
emissions, or how to prioritize transport investment. As the subjects are debated,
policies can change in either direction. Brexit is fundamentally different in
that it is an either/or choice for ever, or at least for a very long time. One
section of the population wins and another loses everything. In the post-referendum
political debate, the Conservative Party has been the party of Brexit, effectively
telling those opposed to Brexit that the pro-Brexit faction has taken charge
and Brexit opponents no longer have a say. A new noun was invented (“remoaners”)
to label those who dislike Brexit as “bad losers”. No possibility of reconsideration
or re-evaluation of the decision has been permitted. The Prime Minister’s first
statement, after winning the election, that remoaners should “put a sock in it”
reflect this attitude precisely. His subsequent speech was more conciliatory,
but I suspect that reconciliation will be difficult in the short term at least.
It should also be noted that Brexit was not supported by Scotland,
Northern Ireland, London and other large cities. Brexit was also supported
disproportionately by older voters and opposed disproportionately by younger
voters. Thus, Brexit is a project of the English regions outside major urban
centres and of a generation who will be less affected by Brexit than its
younger opponents.
The Labour Party
For about the last 100 years the Labour Party has vied for governmental
power with the Conservative and Unionist Party. The principal third party, the
Liberals (now the Liberal Democrats), has been a voice for change and new
ideas, but without any role in government apart from the five years of coalition
2010-2015. In short, the Labour Party has been, and still is the only
alternative to the Conservatives.
Labour’s origins in the late 19th- and early 20-centuries was
deeply rooted in trade unions, the cooperative movement and Methodism. And,
geographically, the party’s heartlands lay in the Midlands, Northern England,
the Welsh Valleys and Scotland’s cities. These were the coal-mining and industrial
areas where working-class solidarity was a bedrock of society. When I reached
voting age in 1970, it was still common for Labour MPs to rise to political
office by being union officials. The 21st-century Labour MP is now
much more likely to be a lawyer or other professional. The party’s share of the
vote in its old heartlands has declined as its leadership has had less in
common with its heritage. Tony Blair, for example, was a privately-educated, Oxford-graduate
lawyer who represented Sedgefield in the
County Durham coal-mining area. In this election, the Conservatives defeated
the Labour Party in Sedgefield and elsewhere by targeting the pro-Brexit,
largely older, voters in places such as Sedgefield which elected a Conservative
MP for the first time since 1930.
The Results
There are 652 MPs. The Conservative Party received 43.8% of votes cast
and won 365 seats, about 58% of MPs. Labour received 32.2% of votes and 203
seats, about 32% or so of MPs. However, the Liberal Democrats with 11.5% of the
votes have only 11 MPs, while the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) with 3.9% of
votes has 48 MPs. The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin
had about 10% of the number of votes received by the Liberal Democrats but have 15 MPs. Similarly, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Nationalists
received a tiny number of votes, about 5% of those received by the Liberal Democrats,
but have 4 MPs, more than a third of the number of Liberal Democrat MPs.
In short, where a party receives its votes, can have a disproportionate
effect on the number of MPs elected. By winning more votes than Labour in Northern
England and Wales and the West Midlands, the Conservatives were able to win a
larger proportion of MPs than the party’s share of votes. The disproportionate
share of MPs compared to votes is still more marked in the smaller “nations”
(as Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are now termed) than in England. This
raised serious questions concerning national unity.
Scotland
Not long ago, Labour dominated Scottish politics. Indeed, it was Labour
that devolved power to form the Scottish Parliament to placate emerging
nationalist sentiments. There are 59 Scottish MPs, of which SNP has now 48. The
Conservatives (who once had scarcely one) now have 6, the Liberal Democrats 4
and Labour a single seat. Moreover, the SNP is the governing party in the Scottish
Parliament. The SNP lost the Scottish independence referendum in 2014. However,
Scotland voted to remain in the EU and is being dragged out by England. A
strong nationalist party combined with resentment against Brexit and the
English creates a climate in which independence sentiment can flourish. Another
independence referendum is not imminent, but is likely within the decade. If Scotland
eventually leaves the UK, Brexit and the Conservative Party’s Brexit obsession
will be in large part responsible.
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland exists as a compromise solution to the movement for Irish
independence from Britain in 1919. Contending unionist and Irish nationalist
interests drive Northern Irish politics. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998, to
some extent constrained the potential for conflict, at least for armed
conflict, but has recently been under severe strain. Now, the Republic of Ireland
is a signatory of the agreement and plays a part in maintaining it. Since Ireland is a member of the EU, the status
of the border and of customs and trading arrangements between the Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland,
constitutes a volatile element of Brexit, an element concerning which
Conservative Party Brexiters were both ignorant and indifferent when Brexit
negotiations began. The issue prevented approval of Mrs. May’s agreement with
the EU and ended her Prime Ministership. Mr Johnson’s achievement of a revised
agreement was the basis of his success in this election.
However, the picture is complicated. After her failure to win a majority
in the 2017 election, Mrs May relied on the support of ten Democratic Unionist
MPs. The Democratic Unionists were resolutely pro-Brexit, although Northern
Ireland voted against Brexit in the referendum. They insisted that the EU
agreement should not in any way treat Northern Ireland differently from the
rest of the UK. Nationalists were resolutely opposed to Brexit. The EU insisted
on an arrangement that prevented the reimposition of any kind of border between
the Republic and the North as a result of Brexit. Therefore, Mrs May negotiated
the Northern Ireland “Backstop” (a contingency device to prevent imposition of
a border if trade negotiations with the UK failed). The Backstop was fiercely
opposed by the committed Brexiters in the Conservative Party and by Mr Johnson.
Mr Johnson’s agreement creates a special customs/trade status for Northern
Ireland, which is fiercely opposed by the Democrat Unionists.
In the election the DUP lost 2 of its 10 seats in Westminster, nationalist
Sinn Féin retained 7 seats and the nationalist SDLP gained 2. Thus, there is
now one more nationalist MP than unionist. So, Brexit and the election has
altered the balance of power and sentiment between pro- and anti-nationalist
groups with cosenquences that could, in the long run, further threaten the
unity of the UK.
In short, Mr Johnson may be pleased with his victory and his rout of
Labour, but the consequences for our nation that result from the Brexit obsession
may be very serious.