There has been only one news item in the UK today, and one topic of conversation. At 15 Upper Village Road, Sunninghill, there is jubilation that we are rid of the Conservative government, and a warm welcome for the new Labour government (I am a, admittedly not very active, member of the party), and pleasure at the strong performance of the Liberal Democrats (Jan is a lifelong member and active leafleteer). Of course, the exact meaning of the results is not yet clear, but a few things, good and bad, seem clear enough to me:
1. While many Labour Party members have been disappointed by Labour’s tentative programme for government, I have heard senior figures in the party say that these are the first steps that the party can promise to deliver. We must hope that more is to come. The initial programme includes some good measures: e.g. a commitment to increase the national minimum wage to the level of a truly liveable wage; a promise to abolish exploitative contracts of employment and precarious employment terms; measures to oblige landlords to improve the conditions of rented homes, many of which are damp, mould-ridden and cold; measures to increase the production of renewable energy and other initiatives to combat climate change.
2. However, the turnout was low at 60% and Labour’s share of 34% of votes implies that only 20% of all possible voters actively voted for the party. The Conservatives received 24% of votes cast, and their right-wing challenger, Reform UK received 14%, wining respectively 19% and 1% of the seats. The disparity in terms of votes received and seats won is the consequence of our electoral system. In 2019 Labour won lots of votes in all the wrong places, but in 2024 the opposite is true: 32% of the vote in 2019 won 202 seats; in 2024 34% of votes yielded 412 seats. On the other hand, in 2019 the Conservatives’ 44% of votes yielded 317 seats, while 24% of the vote in 2024 gave the party 121 seats. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, who in 2024 targeted their campaign spending very acutely, received 12% of votes and won 71 seats (they won only 8 in 2019).
3. The Labour Party leader (with whom I disagree on some important matters) has been remarkably single-minded, focused and tenacious in reforming (and purging) his party, assembling his team, and planning a programme for government. While some appalling event may intervene to make life difficult for the government and our country, with a fair wind I think that much good could be accomplished. My optimistic self thinks that he is capable of assembling a capable team, of leading his government with a discipline and clarity of purpose, to deliver the initial programme and then go further. He may be dull as the media complain (I am not quite so sure he is, in fact), but I would rather be led by him than by any of those who have preceded him since 2010.
4. The Conservatives whose comments I have heard on the radio, speak of being chastened, but in the next breath claim that they have achieved many good things, blame their performance on Covid and Ukraine, and describe themselves as “the natural party of government.” The complacency and sense of entitlement on the day of a catastrophic performance is astounding. I heard one MP say that because Labour received only 34% of the vote the party has no mandate to deliver the programme that it has promised to the country. This is rather rich: for example, in 2015 the Conservative Party received 37% of the vote and delivered Brexit, the most consequential and disastrous change in our international relations that has inflicted appalling cultural, political and economic harms.
5. While, the election of a Labour government avoids, thank God, the surge of right-wing parties seen elsewhere in Europe, the election results are ominous. Reform UK won 14% of the vote, the Conservatives 24%, a combined total of 38%. If the Conservative Party responds by shifting further to the right, or even in extremis merging with Reform as some seem to propose, todays’ election could be a prequel to a resurgence of right-wing parties in 2029 I hope that the Labour party and my fellow Brits will not ignore this looming threat. I will raise a celebratory glass this evening, but wake up apprehensive tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment